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Dobbs Helps Dems? Mar-a-Lago Raid Helps Repubs?

Are Republicans losing what seemed for months to be their overwhelming advantage in elections to the House of Representatives this November? The answer is unclear.Optimistic Democrats have been thinking the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning Roe v. Wade will trigger an increase in Democratic turnout and a rethinking by Republican-leaning voters who don’t want to see abortion criminalized.Optimistic Republicans have started thinking the FBI and Justice Department’s search of Mar-a-Lago, former President Donald Trump’s residence in Palm Beach, Florida, will trigger a recoil by Republican-leaning voters who may have qualms about the former president but also fear what many regard as prosecutorial persecution.Optimists are often wrong about political trends. They tend to identify 10 of the last two turning points in public opinion. But sometimes, they get things right. And there’s a nontrivial possibility that both parties’ optimists may be right this year.Consider the first claim. The Dobbs decision was announced on June 24. The first elect …

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